2015 Global Investment Outlook - Research Report - FINANCE Knowledge - MoneyDJ Financial Network watch respond |
Recalling the 2014 original currency paradox beer company assets of each other reward, you will find the majority of stocks and bonds are rising, but if the exchange rate into account, it will be very big shock. Attributed to fluctuations big reason, and regional political risks to heat up, the US Fed QE and when to terminate the debate whether to raise interest paradox beer company rates ahead of China and the European economy will cool down significantly in the third quarter related. Looking ahead to 2015, when the first Fed rate hike is still the focus, according to market estimates, the opportunity paradox beer company in June or July rate hike is large, paradox beer company and therefore the end of the second quarter, the market may fluctuate. But on the whole it seems, because in 2015 the annual growth rate of global GDP in 2014 would be more warming, which is still 7.2% slowdown paradox beer company in China's high-growth, emerging Asia is also a good performance of 6.2% (Table 1), plus inflation the risk is very low, monetary conditions are still liberal bias, as long as the overall market sentiment, but to aversion, the investment value of the stock is still better than bonds, especially optimistic about the performance of Asian stock markets, if the European Central Bank launched QE, European stock markets also have good opportunity. A more detailed analysis of the following will each asset / region for.
2014 Chinese paradox beer company government launched a series of reform measures, including paradox beer company anti-corruption fight corruption, reform of state-owned enterprises (state-owned oil companies and 6 include COFCO, China building materials and other state-owned enterprises), hukou reforms (blue print accounts canceled policies), tax reform (SMEs tax cuts, reduce the tax regulation of telecommunications paradox beer company services), and the relaxation of capital market investment restrictions (allow private capital established financial institutions, open to private capital to expand investment in infrastructure and open through Hong Kong and Shanghai), etc., estimated in 2015 will continue to implement a major reform plan including Shenzhen and Hong Kong through and thirteenth five years (2016 - 2020) plan blueprint will be in focus. These reforms to improve the quality of economic growth, will gradually appear in the next period of time out of the 2015 economic growth has a positive help, also continue to push up the upward revaluation of China's stock market paradox beer company evaluation.
Shanghai and Hong Kong will continue to attract international capital through investment in Chinese stock market, which in the past it rammed the mainland investment goods: real estate and financial commodity return rate of 20.4% from 2013, 9.3% drop sharply to 0.2 percent this year, 5.9% (Source: CEIC, Bloomberg, MorganStanleyResearch, paradox beer company 2014 年 11 12 May), so that investors substantial blood loss, estimated there will be more and more money from the housing and financial commodity transfer into the stock market (a diagram on the next page, top), surrounded by long-term funding is important paradox beer company kinetic energy of the future of China's stock market rose.
Recalling the 2014 Asian stocks, most ASEAN stock markets to surrender rosy report card: After the coup in Thailand in May, the stock market because of reduced political uncertainty and military government stimulus, the stock market performance long red, since the beginning of Thailand's paradox beer company SET index up 16.79 percent; Indonesia after Congress and the presidential election, market expectations of reform prompted Jakarta stock market rose 19.63 percent since the beginning; the Philippines is seeking continued to grow steadily, in addition to the five countries of ASEAN to create the best economic growth rate than , infrastructure investment but also to continue to see more foreign investment to promote the Philippines Composite Index rose 19.35% since the beginning (Data Source: Bloomberg, paradox beer company as of December 18, 2014). Based on the following reasons, we remain positive view of the stock market performance paradox beer company of the ASEAN in 2015, the analysis for the following reasons:
2014 South Korea's economy paradox beer company is facing internal and external, the government resorted to a series of stimulus, and the benchmark interest rate to a historic low of 2%, driven by South Korea's economy from shocks gradually warmed. The Government paradox beer company has announced the expansion of 2015 - 2017 expenditure will expand inject growth momentum is expected to spur the housing market heated up, the wealth effect is also expected to push up domestic consumption to return to the growth track. On the other hand, Chinese demand paradox beer company growth slowing, paradox beer company will remain a drag on South Korea's export prospects, and will also affect business investment and manufacturing performance, in the case of the engine can not be started growing, expected GDP growth in 2015 is expected to be South Korea 2014 a slight increase of 3.4% 3.7% (Source: MorganStanley / 2014 年 12 1st).
In early December the European Central Bank President Mario Draghi said the central bank will re-assess the impact of existing measures in early 2015, the market interpreted as the European Central Bank will be fully quantitative easing specific plans delayed until next year. However, paradox beer company because the euro zone inflation data steadily fall, in November consumer price index is again reduced to 0.3% (Source: Bloomberg paradox beer company / 2014 年 11 30 May), scheduled from the euro zone of 2 percent inflation target farther and farther, when the possibility of deflation rise, the ECB more likely to launch a comprehensive program of quantitative easing. Actually Looking at 2014, Drudge has taken a lot of action, from the introduction of long-term refinancing operations directed (TLTRO), to purchase asset-backed securities (ABS), financial asset-backed securities (CoveredBond) and relent announced the purchase of corporate bonds, are lay the foundation for being nicknamed "Rocket" further massive stimulus plan.
Due to falling oil prices, the deficit of the current account of the past in Turkey remission, in November 2014 the monthly current account deficit has turned the balance paradox beer company (Source: Bloomberg / 2014 年 11 30 May), Turkish sovereign debt risk fall, Turkey optimistic expectations of the market sovereign debt rating is expected paradox beer company to be positive adjustment. In the domestic market, Turkish paradox beer company consumer loans rise, household consumption is also expected to contribute to warming (Source: Central Bank of Turkey, TurkStat, paradox beer company Credit Suisse research / 2014 年 12 1st), adding to the rising power of the Turkish stock market. But need to pay attention to Turkey paradox beer company will be parliamentary elections in June 2015, when the political issues could be an important factor affecting the Turkish stock market.
High-yield bonds in the first half 2014 performance is very beautiful, global high-yield bond index compiled by Merrill Lynch to, for example, from January to June are being paid every month, in the first half + 5.85% cumulative remuneration (Source: Bloomberg, Merrill Lynch / June 30, 2014), to many analysts expected the beginning of the annual increase (about 5%), followed by the market because of concerns about the geopolitical risks to heat up, the Fed chairman Yellen named High Yield debt overheating paradox beer company concerns, capital outflows paradox beer company high-yield bonds, as well as energy prices plunged leading to the emergence of energy selling high-yield bonds, taking the full first half rose Yiba (Source: Bloomberg, Merrill Lynch / 2014 on December 18, day).
2015 Five central bank policy rates to differences, the United States and Britain will raise interest rates for the first time, Europe and Japan will overweight easing (QE), overall monetary conditions remain accommodative bias. But the multiplier effect in Europe, Japan QE still reached as the United States, bond yields are still expected to go up slowly. In this environment, bond investment during the first weight have a lower existence, higher yields of bond types, and retreated through the second half of the amendment, global high-yield bonds currently owns 7.11% of the high yield, but only during the existence of There are four 52 years (Source: paradox beer company Merrill Lynch / December 18, 2014), compared to investment grade bonds and emerging market hard currency debt, more investment value.
Although investment in high yield bonds of the most prime time may have passed, but the 2015 annual interest rate environment is still loose, plus the amount of high-yield bonds and loans maturing in 2016 are limited, refinancing pressure is not high (Source: Merrill paradox beer company Lynch / November 24, 2014), the default rate in 2015 is expected to maintain the water level is still below the long term average, Merrill Lynch is expected by the end of 2015 global high-yield bonds over the past 12 months the average default rate would be more November 2014 increase of 1.44% to 2.8%, still below the long-term average of 4.48% (Figure V next page, top), high-yield bonds of different regions is a similar trend, the overall view, the default rate is low Support high-yield debt investment value an important cornerstone.
In addition, we believe the fundamentals of emerging market debt more attractive. paradox beer company Emerging market sovereign credit rating paradox beer company as a whole continued to improve in 2014, countries belonging to the "investment grade" to reach 21, the highest level in history, accounting for the overall share of emerging market countries paradox beer company rose to 67% (Figure 6); at the same time, emerging market local currency bonds with up to 6.65% of yield and low existing period only four of 80 years (data Source: Bloomberg, using JPMGBI-EMGD; Information Date: December 18, 2014)., will help investors at the same time reap the benefits of overcoming the risk of rising interest rates in 2015.
Emerging market local currency debt in 2008, 2011, they were down 5.22 percent, after 1.75 percent, next year both rose 21.98%, 16.75% (source: Bloomberg / December 10, 2014). 2014 is also the year in local currency debt turmoil, we believe that even if the 2015 is not able to fully replicate the local debt in 2009 and 2012, an amazing reward, but based on the face value of the local currency debt has been extremely cheap, the majority of the local currency has been the market is underestimating, coupled with the high yield protection and appreciation of the local currency midline opportunity paradox beer company to follow potential should not be underestimated.
The Fund approved by the FSC or agree to take effect, but does not mean no risk. Fund Manager of Managers of companies in the past does not guarantee a minimum income investment funds; fund managers note that a good administrator divisible obligations, is not responsible for profits and losses of the Fund, nor does it guarantee the lowest earnings, paradox beer company investors should read the fund before the purchase prospectus. The information provided is for reference only, the information provided herein, the recommendation or forecast is based on or derived from sources believed to be reliable. However, the company does not guarantee its accuracy and completeness. Such information, suggestions or predicted to change at any time based on market conditions. The company does not guarantee its forecast will be realized, not for anyone use this provided any information, suggestion or prediction of losses arising responsible. Forecasts economic trends of this article does not represent the performance of the underlying funds, the fund risks, please paradox beer company read the fund's prospectus. Shall bear the costs related to the Fund (including distribution costs) have been revealed in the prospectus and investor information in the fund, investors can to offshore funds MOPS query. Part of the fund invested in emerging paradox beer company markets involved, its volatility may be high level of risk, and its political and economic stability of the situation may be lower than developed countries, may also make the value of the assets affected by different degrees of. Investors vary over time approach, there will be differences between investment performance Past performance does not represent a guarantee of future performance of. Law or regulation, portfolio investment in the mainland securities market listed securities is limited (ie, A shares and B shares), and the total amount invested in those securities may not exceed ten percent of the value of the net assets of the fund. Investors should also pay attention to the Chinese market specific investment risks politics, economy and market. Investors of the Fund as a positive paradox beer company attribute paradox beer company type. The Fund approved by the FSC or agree to take effect, but does not mean no risk. Since the credit rating paradox beer company of the high-yield bonds and other less than investment grade credit rating paradox beer company or not, and the very high sensitivity to changes in interest rates, so the funds may be due to higher interest rates, market paradox beer company liquidity declined, paradox beer company the bond issuer defaults or non-payment principal, interest or bankruptcy suffered losses. The Fund is not suitable for people unable to bear the investment risks associated with the. Fund Manager of Managers of companies in the past does not guarantee a minimum income investment funds; fund managers note that a good administrator divisible paradox beer company obligations, paradox beer company is not responsible for profits and losses of the Fund, nor does it guarantee the lowest earnings, investors should read the fund before the purchase prospectus. Investors investing in high-yield bonds for the demands paradox beer company of the fund should not be excessively high proportion of its portfolio of funds with interest may be paid by the Fund in income or principal. Any expenses related to the portion of the principal amount, which may lead to the original paradox beer company investment amount derogation. Fund nearly 12 months with interest component projects list See Baring Securities Investment Consulting Co., Ltd. Http://www.barings.com/tw/ProfessionalAdvisers/index.htm. Baring paradox beer company in 1762, and has over 250 years of history, Baring's investment adviser is a subsidiary of ING Barings.
Category Topic: Agricultural flour pasta relevant gas storage / distribution silver certificate CICC Asian energy certificate FactSet Research Systems Inc. Merrill Lynch & Co. Inc. MORGAN STANLEY Stocks Greece Russia, South Korea Indonesia Malaysia Thailand Turkey Venezuela Vietnam Iran corporate debt of $ euro-yen gold emerging market debt-based global energy fund Vietnam, Eastern Europe, China Asia Fund Performance European fund trading high-yield bonds Russian raw materials value investing asset allocation Korean stocks Taiwan stock exchange paradox beer company Agri-Food - Food and Agriculture wheat - agrifood corn - soybean oil overall economy - the United States Bonds overall economic - financial debt national trade currency markets budget Pupil economic indicators signal Search
ETF ETF fight carts cost ETF investment theme competitions
Recalling the 2014 original currency paradox beer company assets of each other reward, you will find the majority of stocks and bonds are rising, but if the exchange rate into account, it will be very big shock. Attributed to fluctuations big reason, and regional political risks to heat up, the US Fed QE and when to terminate the debate whether to raise interest paradox beer company rates ahead of China and the European economy will cool down significantly in the third quarter related. Looking ahead to 2015, when the first Fed rate hike is still the focus, according to market estimates, the opportunity paradox beer company in June or July rate hike is large, paradox beer company and therefore the end of the second quarter, the market may fluctuate. But on the whole it seems, because in 2015 the annual growth rate of global GDP in 2014 would be more warming, which is still 7.2% slowdown paradox beer company in China's high-growth, emerging Asia is also a good performance of 6.2% (Table 1), plus inflation the risk is very low, monetary conditions are still liberal bias, as long as the overall market sentiment, but to aversion, the investment value of the stock is still better than bonds, especially optimistic about the performance of Asian stock markets, if the European Central Bank launched QE, European stock markets also have good opportunity. A more detailed analysis of the following will each asset / region for.
2014 Chinese paradox beer company government launched a series of reform measures, including paradox beer company anti-corruption fight corruption, reform of state-owned enterprises (state-owned oil companies and 6 include COFCO, China building materials and other state-owned enterprises), hukou reforms (blue print accounts canceled policies), tax reform (SMEs tax cuts, reduce the tax regulation of telecommunications paradox beer company services), and the relaxation of capital market investment restrictions (allow private capital established financial institutions, open to private capital to expand investment in infrastructure and open through Hong Kong and Shanghai), etc., estimated in 2015 will continue to implement a major reform plan including Shenzhen and Hong Kong through and thirteenth five years (2016 - 2020) plan blueprint will be in focus. These reforms to improve the quality of economic growth, will gradually appear in the next period of time out of the 2015 economic growth has a positive help, also continue to push up the upward revaluation of China's stock market paradox beer company evaluation.
Shanghai and Hong Kong will continue to attract international capital through investment in Chinese stock market, which in the past it rammed the mainland investment goods: real estate and financial commodity return rate of 20.4% from 2013, 9.3% drop sharply to 0.2 percent this year, 5.9% (Source: CEIC, Bloomberg, MorganStanleyResearch, paradox beer company 2014 年 11 12 May), so that investors substantial blood loss, estimated there will be more and more money from the housing and financial commodity transfer into the stock market (a diagram on the next page, top), surrounded by long-term funding is important paradox beer company kinetic energy of the future of China's stock market rose.
Recalling the 2014 Asian stocks, most ASEAN stock markets to surrender rosy report card: After the coup in Thailand in May, the stock market because of reduced political uncertainty and military government stimulus, the stock market performance long red, since the beginning of Thailand's paradox beer company SET index up 16.79 percent; Indonesia after Congress and the presidential election, market expectations of reform prompted Jakarta stock market rose 19.63 percent since the beginning; the Philippines is seeking continued to grow steadily, in addition to the five countries of ASEAN to create the best economic growth rate than , infrastructure investment but also to continue to see more foreign investment to promote the Philippines Composite Index rose 19.35% since the beginning (Data Source: Bloomberg, paradox beer company as of December 18, 2014). Based on the following reasons, we remain positive view of the stock market performance paradox beer company of the ASEAN in 2015, the analysis for the following reasons:
2014 South Korea's economy paradox beer company is facing internal and external, the government resorted to a series of stimulus, and the benchmark interest rate to a historic low of 2%, driven by South Korea's economy from shocks gradually warmed. The Government paradox beer company has announced the expansion of 2015 - 2017 expenditure will expand inject growth momentum is expected to spur the housing market heated up, the wealth effect is also expected to push up domestic consumption to return to the growth track. On the other hand, Chinese demand paradox beer company growth slowing, paradox beer company will remain a drag on South Korea's export prospects, and will also affect business investment and manufacturing performance, in the case of the engine can not be started growing, expected GDP growth in 2015 is expected to be South Korea 2014 a slight increase of 3.4% 3.7% (Source: MorganStanley / 2014 年 12 1st).
In early December the European Central Bank President Mario Draghi said the central bank will re-assess the impact of existing measures in early 2015, the market interpreted as the European Central Bank will be fully quantitative easing specific plans delayed until next year. However, paradox beer company because the euro zone inflation data steadily fall, in November consumer price index is again reduced to 0.3% (Source: Bloomberg paradox beer company / 2014 年 11 30 May), scheduled from the euro zone of 2 percent inflation target farther and farther, when the possibility of deflation rise, the ECB more likely to launch a comprehensive program of quantitative easing. Actually Looking at 2014, Drudge has taken a lot of action, from the introduction of long-term refinancing operations directed (TLTRO), to purchase asset-backed securities (ABS), financial asset-backed securities (CoveredBond) and relent announced the purchase of corporate bonds, are lay the foundation for being nicknamed "Rocket" further massive stimulus plan.
Due to falling oil prices, the deficit of the current account of the past in Turkey remission, in November 2014 the monthly current account deficit has turned the balance paradox beer company (Source: Bloomberg / 2014 年 11 30 May), Turkish sovereign debt risk fall, Turkey optimistic expectations of the market sovereign debt rating is expected paradox beer company to be positive adjustment. In the domestic market, Turkish paradox beer company consumer loans rise, household consumption is also expected to contribute to warming (Source: Central Bank of Turkey, TurkStat, paradox beer company Credit Suisse research / 2014 年 12 1st), adding to the rising power of the Turkish stock market. But need to pay attention to Turkey paradox beer company will be parliamentary elections in June 2015, when the political issues could be an important factor affecting the Turkish stock market.
High-yield bonds in the first half 2014 performance is very beautiful, global high-yield bond index compiled by Merrill Lynch to, for example, from January to June are being paid every month, in the first half + 5.85% cumulative remuneration (Source: Bloomberg, Merrill Lynch / June 30, 2014), to many analysts expected the beginning of the annual increase (about 5%), followed by the market because of concerns about the geopolitical risks to heat up, the Fed chairman Yellen named High Yield debt overheating paradox beer company concerns, capital outflows paradox beer company high-yield bonds, as well as energy prices plunged leading to the emergence of energy selling high-yield bonds, taking the full first half rose Yiba (Source: Bloomberg, Merrill Lynch / 2014 on December 18, day).
2015 Five central bank policy rates to differences, the United States and Britain will raise interest rates for the first time, Europe and Japan will overweight easing (QE), overall monetary conditions remain accommodative bias. But the multiplier effect in Europe, Japan QE still reached as the United States, bond yields are still expected to go up slowly. In this environment, bond investment during the first weight have a lower existence, higher yields of bond types, and retreated through the second half of the amendment, global high-yield bonds currently owns 7.11% of the high yield, but only during the existence of There are four 52 years (Source: paradox beer company Merrill Lynch / December 18, 2014), compared to investment grade bonds and emerging market hard currency debt, more investment value.
Although investment in high yield bonds of the most prime time may have passed, but the 2015 annual interest rate environment is still loose, plus the amount of high-yield bonds and loans maturing in 2016 are limited, refinancing pressure is not high (Source: Merrill paradox beer company Lynch / November 24, 2014), the default rate in 2015 is expected to maintain the water level is still below the long term average, Merrill Lynch is expected by the end of 2015 global high-yield bonds over the past 12 months the average default rate would be more November 2014 increase of 1.44% to 2.8%, still below the long-term average of 4.48% (Figure V next page, top), high-yield bonds of different regions is a similar trend, the overall view, the default rate is low Support high-yield debt investment value an important cornerstone.
In addition, we believe the fundamentals of emerging market debt more attractive. paradox beer company Emerging market sovereign credit rating paradox beer company as a whole continued to improve in 2014, countries belonging to the "investment grade" to reach 21, the highest level in history, accounting for the overall share of emerging market countries paradox beer company rose to 67% (Figure 6); at the same time, emerging market local currency bonds with up to 6.65% of yield and low existing period only four of 80 years (data Source: Bloomberg, using JPMGBI-EMGD; Information Date: December 18, 2014)., will help investors at the same time reap the benefits of overcoming the risk of rising interest rates in 2015.
Emerging market local currency debt in 2008, 2011, they were down 5.22 percent, after 1.75 percent, next year both rose 21.98%, 16.75% (source: Bloomberg / December 10, 2014). 2014 is also the year in local currency debt turmoil, we believe that even if the 2015 is not able to fully replicate the local debt in 2009 and 2012, an amazing reward, but based on the face value of the local currency debt has been extremely cheap, the majority of the local currency has been the market is underestimating, coupled with the high yield protection and appreciation of the local currency midline opportunity paradox beer company to follow potential should not be underestimated.
The Fund approved by the FSC or agree to take effect, but does not mean no risk. Fund Manager of Managers of companies in the past does not guarantee a minimum income investment funds; fund managers note that a good administrator divisible obligations, is not responsible for profits and losses of the Fund, nor does it guarantee the lowest earnings, paradox beer company investors should read the fund before the purchase prospectus. The information provided is for reference only, the information provided herein, the recommendation or forecast is based on or derived from sources believed to be reliable. However, the company does not guarantee its accuracy and completeness. Such information, suggestions or predicted to change at any time based on market conditions. The company does not guarantee its forecast will be realized, not for anyone use this provided any information, suggestion or prediction of losses arising responsible. Forecasts economic trends of this article does not represent the performance of the underlying funds, the fund risks, please paradox beer company read the fund's prospectus. Shall bear the costs related to the Fund (including distribution costs) have been revealed in the prospectus and investor information in the fund, investors can to offshore funds MOPS query. Part of the fund invested in emerging paradox beer company markets involved, its volatility may be high level of risk, and its political and economic stability of the situation may be lower than developed countries, may also make the value of the assets affected by different degrees of. Investors vary over time approach, there will be differences between investment performance Past performance does not represent a guarantee of future performance of. Law or regulation, portfolio investment in the mainland securities market listed securities is limited (ie, A shares and B shares), and the total amount invested in those securities may not exceed ten percent of the value of the net assets of the fund. Investors should also pay attention to the Chinese market specific investment risks politics, economy and market. Investors of the Fund as a positive paradox beer company attribute paradox beer company type. The Fund approved by the FSC or agree to take effect, but does not mean no risk. Since the credit rating paradox beer company of the high-yield bonds and other less than investment grade credit rating paradox beer company or not, and the very high sensitivity to changes in interest rates, so the funds may be due to higher interest rates, market paradox beer company liquidity declined, paradox beer company the bond issuer defaults or non-payment principal, interest or bankruptcy suffered losses. The Fund is not suitable for people unable to bear the investment risks associated with the. Fund Manager of Managers of companies in the past does not guarantee a minimum income investment funds; fund managers note that a good administrator divisible paradox beer company obligations, paradox beer company is not responsible for profits and losses of the Fund, nor does it guarantee the lowest earnings, investors should read the fund before the purchase prospectus. Investors investing in high-yield bonds for the demands paradox beer company of the fund should not be excessively high proportion of its portfolio of funds with interest may be paid by the Fund in income or principal. Any expenses related to the portion of the principal amount, which may lead to the original paradox beer company investment amount derogation. Fund nearly 12 months with interest component projects list See Baring Securities Investment Consulting Co., Ltd. Http://www.barings.com/tw/ProfessionalAdvisers/index.htm. Baring paradox beer company in 1762, and has over 250 years of history, Baring's investment adviser is a subsidiary of ING Barings.
Category Topic: Agricultural flour pasta relevant gas storage / distribution silver certificate CICC Asian energy certificate FactSet Research Systems Inc. Merrill Lynch & Co. Inc. MORGAN STANLEY Stocks Greece Russia, South Korea Indonesia Malaysia Thailand Turkey Venezuela Vietnam Iran corporate debt of $ euro-yen gold emerging market debt-based global energy fund Vietnam, Eastern Europe, China Asia Fund Performance European fund trading high-yield bonds Russian raw materials value investing asset allocation Korean stocks Taiwan stock exchange paradox beer company Agri-Food - Food and Agriculture wheat - agrifood corn - soybean oil overall economy - the United States Bonds overall economic - financial debt national trade currency markets budget Pupil economic indicators signal Search
ETF ETF fight carts cost ETF investment theme competitions
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